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garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Monday, July 22, 2013

Rich Coleman, Running On Empty Promises, More Uncomfortable LNG Facts





 If one reads page 6 of the below PDF file......First off, the below linked PDF was written before Shinzo Abe secured his grip on power in Japan`s election yesterday...Shinzo Abe now has a strong majority...And written here on several occasions, Shinzo Abe is fast tracking the restart of Japan`s nuclear facilities..

In the below report, they specifically state that Japan as a LNG market, Japan`s current use of LNG could decline by 67% or more depending on how much of their nuclear power is brought back online...(page 6)

The below report also states that future LNG estimated demand from China is in doubt, the reason for that doubt is....? China has vast domestic supplies of shale gas and no one knows for sure how aggressively and how fast China will develop their domestic gas reserves..(page 6 of the below PDF)



http://www.brg-expert.com/media/publication/355_Goncalves_LNGJournal_June2013.pdf


As written here in past posts, Japan needs their nuclear utilities online for economical reasons, the economic cost to Japan`s ruling Government in raw $dollars is $20 billion dollars annually, and about 600,000 domestic jobs in Japan will be lost if the nuclear industry isn`t restarted, not to mention energy insecurity and high priced electric bills for average Japanese people, ...Like here in British Columbia, the more money we spend on hydro electric bills and car fuels the less money gets spent in the overall economy, the public will cut back in other areas, Japan has already seen the domestic pullback..

As for China developing their own vast reserves of shale gas, that was forewarned here some time ago too...In this viral post..

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2012/02/chinese-tigers-playing-with-canadian.html


So here`s the deal, the real deal, there are LNG export facilities coming online around the world, Australia, USA, east Africa, more Russian and Qatari supply coming online, Israel LNG, Mozambique..More natural gas coming from the Stan countries, developing all this supply was predicated on several factors, the most important, only 6 year to 8 years ago the world thought the USA would be a huge market for LNG(imported LNG into the USA)...That market is caput, a dozen inport LNG regasification plants were built to receive this gas, they were all but shuttered before most were even completely built, the American shale gas fraccing revolution destroyed a market the world`s LNG export countries were depending on before it even started...

The import plants are now being converted to LNG export plants, thus giving the USA a monster sized economic advantage over any Canadian LNG development..

The LNG exporting countries also didn`t account for China discovering the world`s largest reserves of natural gas, a 400 year supply situated in mainland China..That monkeywrench is still an unknown quantity..

But then the LNG exporting countries caught a break, it was a great break for them but bad news for Japan and the world, no one anticipated the Tsunami(?) and earthquake(?) at Fukushima....That caused Japan to shutdown all their nuclear facilities...

Funny coincidence eh?...Japan`s nuclear disaster was a saving grace for LNG exporting countries, and wannabe LNG exporting countries, for Japan absorbed the majority of the LNG glut on the market, that glut was created by the USA suddenly finding itself awash in domestic gas... and now the USA is a dead market for imported LNG....Had the USA not gone fraccing crazy that glut of LNG would have never developed..

Conspiracy theorists could go nuts with those implications, a Japanese Nuclear accident(?) and shutdown to save an LNG industry?...Well, I`ll leave that conversation for another day..

So, Japan`s disaster saved LNG exporting country`s bacon(albeit temporarily), but now..

But now Japan is going full-nuclear restart, therefore we again have, and will have a massive glut of LNG on the market with even more capacity coming online over the next few years, in other words..

There will be more gas sellers than buyers....And we have Japan/Korea and China now developing, R&Ding and exploring the potential of ocean methane hydrates...There is more ocean methane hydrates available than any other source of fossil fuel..A 500 year supply minimum..

 http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2013/07/british-columbias-long-proposed-lng.html

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2013/07/christy-clarks-lng-basket-of-eggs.html

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So let`s recap....The world LNG exporting countries geared up for a big USA market for their gas...That market collapsed before it began.

Unfortunate events at Fukushima was a godsend for all those LNG exporting countries, Japan bought up most of the excess supply that was originally intended for the USA...

However, the cost was and is to great for Japan, ...Japan can`t afford not to restart the nuclear electrical utility companies, they will indeed restart all of and possibly build even more nuclear plants..

The combination of these events, the combination of excess supply of gas now and even more supply coming online very soon...With the medium term outlook for LNG demand flat and or negative..

And the fact that the big energy companies who already own LNG plants, who have more LNG exporting plants coming online very soon as no less than 12 monster LNG facilities are near built..These are the very same energy companies kicking the tires in British Columbia and the USA...And the USA has that pre-existing facilities built already advantage..

This series of events has cast very serious doubts anything will get built in British Columbia, do the energy companies want to create even more supply to compete with themselves?????..That is doubtful..

Which brings me to the reason for this post...What took the energy experts so long to figure it out?

And...The only way anything gets built in British Columbia is...is if we offer a taxation and royalty structure so attractive to the energy companies...Well, anything that attractive to the energy companies means British Columbia won`t...

We won`t pay off our BC debt with LNG, we won`t pay off BC Hydro debt, BC Ferry debt, we won`t eliminate sales tax and road tolls, Christy Clark`s $trillion dollar fantasy and prosperity fund worth $hundreds of billions of dollars to future generations promised was nothing but pixie dust and wishful thinking..

All of that pre-election hooey is off the table and today, 9 weeks after the last B.C. general election the big LNG climbdown begins..All those new hospitals, new funding, our roads paved with LNG gold, all debts, tolls and sales tax eliminated, all crown corporation debt paid off, all those election promises are now nothing but ancient hyperbole spun..

Ross K gave me the early hint..(Go have a look)..Link below.


http://pacificgazette.blogspot.ca/2013/07/this-day-in-snooklandwould-you-buy-used.html


Rich Coleman had a op-ed piece published in the Vancouver Sun, no questions asked or answered, only Rich Coleman talking vague terms...But what struck many people, people who have been paying attention was this utterance by Rich Coleman..
_____

"Like other jurisdictions have done, we intend to create a Prosperity Fund into which revenues from our natural gas sector will flow and will help eliminate B.C.’s debt..."

___________


According to LNG minister Rich Coleman, LNG will now only "help eliminate B.C.s debt"

The big climbdown has begun, we have gone from a $trillion dollars to help...

Here is some information from a much earlier Straight Goods posting..

_________


LNG facilities are currently proposed by business groups that include some of the world`s biggest energy companies-Shell, Imperial, Chevron, British Gas, Petronas, SK & and ES of South Korea, Inpex and the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation, to name some of the major players, it`s no fantasy.
The projects mean 39,000 jobs to British Columbia during construction with another 75,000 full time jobs created once in operation. We can create 1 $trillion dollars in economic activity and create the BC Prosperity fund with $100 billion over 30 years.

An opportunity this good faces lots of global competition. Premier Christy Clark and Today`s BC Liberals have worked diligently to enable LNG as an economic generator for decades to come."

(BC Liberal platform at below link)

http://files.flipsnack.com/iframe/embed.html?hash=fhcjsxtd&wmode=window&bgcolor=EEEEEE&t=13660594461366059618

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There is the smoking gun evidence, from the BC Liberal platform...39,000 construction jobs and 75,00 full-time jobs once in operation..

That whole number thing seems backwards from the git-go, normally there are more during construction jobs than the full time after everything is built job numbers....

Do you see those job numbers in the BC Liberal election platform...

"39,000 jobs to British Columbia during construction with another 75,000 full time jobs created once in operation"

How many LNG plants are being proposed, we have heard these Liberals say 4 LNG plants, 6 LNG plants, 8 LNG plants...

Well, there was an article in the Vancouver Sun earlier this year, the BG Group(British Gas) announced they are going to the planning stage, then if that goes well they will apply for an environmental assessment, no they haven`t made any firm commitments, it`s still very early in the process, they mention something about, if everything goes well they will start assembly of their LNG plant in 2016..

But what is absolutely startling is the honesty in the article, honesty from a major world class energy company..

What British Gas has stated in the article is this...

________

"The BG Group has filed plans for a liquefied natural gas plant at Prince Rupert that would consume the equivalent to all of the province’s current production of natural gas and almost all the energy generated by BC Hydro’s proposed Site C dam to produce it."

_____

Do you see that? This one LNG plant will consume all the present natural gas production in British Columbia, that`s not the scary part, what is stated in the article puts "Christy Clark and Today`s BC Liberal`s" jobs number to shame, this article makes a complete mockery of what the Liberals are stating in their 2013 election platform..

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"BG intends to build a facility on Ridley Island capable of producing 21 million tonnes of LNG a year. Called Prince Rupert LNG, it would be built overseas in modules and shipped to Prince Rupert for assembly.

 Even so, the plant would create 3,500 jobs during construction,

 250 permanent direct jobs and another 250 spinoff jobs.

 BG says it is planning to build it in two phases, beginning in 2016.
The first phase — two seven-million-tonne-a-year processing units, or trains — is to be completed by 2021" 
________

Do you see that?....3500 temporary construction jobs, 250 full-time jobs with 250 full-time spinoff jobs...

 http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2013/06/christy-clark-goes-down-rabbit-holelng.html

Ok, one last recap...The amount of jobs associated with LNG is a lie, now the amount of revenue is being slashed before anything is even built, in Christy Clark`s and the BC Liberal`s 2013 election platform they suggested strongly that our BC Debt would be eliminated and $100 billion also would be placed in a prosperity fund, and now 2 months after our election LNG revenue over 30 years will only "help eliminate B.C.`s debt" whatever that means


You can read Rich Coleman`s blather at the below link if you like..No questions asked, no details given, no shovels in the ground now, no companies are even deciding whether or not they will build for at least few years,



http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/op-ed/Opinion+Development+promises+transformative+prosperity/8688858/story.html

Rich Coleman is wrong with his unchallenged statements in that article, especially about the Japanese market..

And that is precisely why our mainstream media is useless, why Palmer and Baldrey are stooges, why Bill Good and Sean Leslie are paid BC Liberal pom pom girls...They haven`t got the balls to tell..

The Straight Goods




Cheers Eyes Wide Open


2 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FtJimgNPdE8&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DFtJimgNPdE8

Now here's someone speaking the truth that the MSM avoids!

Anonymous said...

That is not unusual for the BC Liberals to lie. We are forced to put up with that vile government, come hell or high water.

Over on Laila's site. There are 18 proposals for 18 more coal mines on, Vancouver Island.

Christy works for Harper, as Campbell did before her. This comes up when? Parliament is closed for the summer and, many BC people are on vacation.

The BC Liberals and Harper, are the masters of dirty tactics. This underhanded sneak, could be part of, Harper's FIPA deal with China.